The future of the gaming industry
AAA games are becoming more and more technically complex, and as a result, game budgets and development time are increasing.Once upon a time, in the 90s, a small group of talented developers could write a game tech demo, get some publisher interested, and develop an advanced game for that time in 2 years without any huge budget.
Over time, games became more and more technically complex, the complexity of development and budgets grew. For example, Half-Life 2's budget was $40 million, which was a record for 2004. And now AAA games are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Only wealthy publishers can afford technically advanced games. A bunch of talented developers without a big budget can no longer make a cutting-edge game like they used to.
In addition to the cost, the development time of the game has increased. If 20 years ago games were made for 2-3 years, now it takes 5 years or more (if this is not a conveyor belt).
As a result, profit was at the forefront, because at such a cost and development time, the game simply will not pay for itself if it is not sold in multi-million copies.
Large publishers have set up a conveyor release of games, when different developers work on games in the same series with the maximum borrowing of assets from other games in the series.
Marketers who are afraid to come up with some innovations have begun to rule the ball, releasing template games that are guaranteed to sell well.
And, most importantly, more and more games are slipping into donation online wankers, in single-player games there are also more and more donations and DLC.
Therefore, I consider the further growth of iron capacities to be meaningless.
If the hardware capacity continues to grow and the games become more and more technically advanced, then with such huge budgets and development timeframes, it will not be profitable to release anything other than donation conveyors and online wankers.
It will not be profitable to develop a game for more than 5 years for 500 million dollars, which the player will buy once and will not donate.
Classic singleplayer games will only be eaten by some Sony as image games, and then in the future it may switch to online games with donations. By the way, Sony began to release their exclusives on PC, because 10 million sales for their exclusives is already not enough, with such and such budgets.
Yes, the gaming market is growing, but mainly due to mobile games and microtransactions, sales of classic games have not grown that much and cannot keep up with the growing budget.
The same Elden Ring is scolded for an outdated engine and the use of assets from other studio games. So it's good - instead of racing for graphics, the developers focused on the gameplay.
And if the developers made a new engine and advanced graphics, then with a limited budget, this would be at the expense of the size of the game and the gameplay. Either the developers would have had to increase the budget and development time of the game, the game would have come out in another 2 years and it’s not a fact that it would bring enough profit for such a budget, and the next game of the developers could be another donation wank to bring enough profit.
Another example, the developers of Cyberpunk 2077 tried to make a technically advanced game with advanced graphics, the game eventually suffered because of this (bugs, cut out features, the plot was obviously planned to be longer and non-linear), and this despite the budget of 320 million dollars against 67 million for The Witcher 3.
Would have done on the old engine, the situation would have been better.
So in the future, more and more games with a minimum of innovations, donations and a service distribution model, or pipelines like Assassin's Creed and Call of Duty will be waiting for us.
There will be fewer and fewer single-player games, and then publishers will try to cram donations, DLCs and other ways of additional monetization into them.
But I think there will be more good indies with original ideas - players will get bored with endless pipelines with a minimum of innovations and donation dumps, the demand for good and original indies will increase.
IOne86
Post it in the opinion section, put in some screenshots. https://www.playground.ru/opinion
noup. in games, the development of aaa content is expensive and there is no direct correlation between the increase in hardware power and the cost of development. Moreover, with an increase in power, the efficiency of the equipment decreases, so the situation differs from the one that was, for example, in the late 90s with the transition to 3D and video cards.
in the capacities of iron, it makes sense approximately about the phase of its singularity, when its direct growth becomes expensive and ineffective within the framework of classical architectures. and in the framework of adaptive graphics systems, there will be the same singularity when, in order to slightly improve something, hyperbolic acceleration of the equipment is required. modern games are still far from this in the mainstream.
as for aaa games and some cool games - they have a lot of inertia, inertia accumulated over the past decades, but already top pants, for example, turned out to be from single player companies that used to be the main ones. there is a shift to multiplayer and it makes other demands on the games. also mobile games are now popular and pay off well or are less risky than large projects. so we see growth.
so if we extrapolate the situation into the future and it does not work exactly, most likely in the future in 15 years there will be mainly a lot of shareware games that will change the paradigm of aaa games and there will be cool expensive ones.
about indie games. if he talks about true indie games, then they will always be made according to the principle that you can easily close up without special knowledge and expensive high-quality content. if we assume that in the future there will be many inexpensive or free high-quality indie games, they will be considered generic garbage and in general in both cases they are made according to the laws of least resistance, which determines their form and typology. it is possible that they will bring down the industry by oversaturating the markets. thicker indies will also follow some tried and tested formula based on the logic of aaa games just pi smaller size and as it increases, they will go beyond the definition of indies, there will be some kind of sub publishers and contractors. some unique gee of all will come out, but it will be about the same as now.
Let's leave philosophy to the grandmothers at the entrance. What is really extremely noticeable from aaa games is that they require the purchase of expensive cards more and more, and the price tag for these cards is getting higher and higher every year, plus the optimization curve, the lack of availability of buying certain games in online stores in RF, buying by rainbow miners of these same cards and low availability on store shelves, not always worthy of the plot, boring side quests, ala a bunch of towers and hundreds of questions on the map. Peka gaming is no longer the folk that it used to be🤷â€â™‚ï¸
More and more watching mobile games are moving.
Some balls are stacked. I know some have sold their PCs, laptops and claim that everything is there
. And even better and everything is compact, and the PC is rather complicated and incomprehensible, it is not clear how it turns on.
MOSHIVURIA lapwing wrote:
and the price tag for these cards is getting higher and higher every year
. Don't you vote for these prices with your actions (you have to pay). Everything is fine with my prices: RTX 3070 for 30-37 thousand and RTX 3080 from 42,000 rubles, RTX 3090 for 65 thousand.
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CHIBIS MOSHIVURII wrote:
plus curve optimization
CHIBIS MISHIVURII wrote:
That's not necessary only)))) Optimization in the game is worthy. Not figs to play on buckets.
He drank up his computer, his bro on the bubble / feast and ideas, drank away the woman, logic and his yesterday's opinion, and now optimization. Unique personality 🤣.
CHIBIS MYSHIVURIA wrote:
the lack of availability of buying certain games in online stores in the Russian Federation
plati, buka, 1c-interes, gabestore, steambuy, changing the region in steam - only to anyone ðŸ¤. I love buying and playing games.
MOSHIVURIA lapwing wrote:
buying up these same maps by rainbow miners of
Maps is heaped. What a pity, people that can afford at least two 3090, but cannot update their bucket.
Spoiler
When you get some air (already funny yourself 😃), give his contacts?
Top map:
If you look at the near future, then everything will turn out very badly. Most developers are located in Europe. Due to the increase in the price of electricity and its limited use, the production of the games themselves will first decrease, then the price of the released games will rise in order to justify the company's costs and resources. Few people can afford to do AAA projects in the next 10-15 years. In the next 2 years we will see the last AAA games see the light of day. Steam and similar marketplaces will be flooded with early access games with an indefinite end date. For the most part, they will start making mobile games and various low-budget games. Perhaps remasters of previous games will be released. I generally keep quiet about indie games, there will be more and more of them every month.
The second element is the shortage of microelectronics. If the situation in the world does not improve, the 40xx generation (and AMD's similar one) will be the last for the next 10-15 years. Due to the energy crisis, sanctions on resources and disruption of supply chains (the Rhine has dried up altogether, water transport across Europe has stopped), there will be an increase in prices and a strong shortage of resources for the production of microelectronics, and from this it follows that there will be an even greater shortage of gaming equipment hardware. To create games, you also need powerful processors and powerful professional cards, etc. No iron - no games.
So, while chaos is going on in the political and economic world, everything is also very bad for gamers. Expect something really good in 2 years - not worth it.
In Germany, from January-February 2023, the price of electricity is projected from 805 euros per megawatt. In France, about 600 euros per megawatt. I'm afraid those companies that are located in the EU countries will soon get acquainted with the furry northern animal (Arctic fox).
Can you imagine how much it will cost in electricity costs to maintain servers for online games?! If you pay 800 euros for 1 MW? Yes, all f2p games will switch to a daily subscription! But who will pay for it when the inflation in the country is over 30%?
So 2 years of happiness for gamers, then the "iron curtain" for the entire gaming industry.
01001000 01101001
In Europe vidyuhi dropped sharply in price, by NG they predict a fall of 3080 to 500 euros, 550 euros for 3080 ti. This is good for a Russian person. That's just how to buy it, and even more difficult - how to take it to your home? If there are relatives, then everything is fine. Now with Lithuania and Latvia visa-free on the border with Belarus. But Russians are not allowed into Lithuania and Latvia. If you only take it from outbidders, but how can you trust a person whom you see for the first time? And even more so to buy some kind of hardware for a PC !? So... It's not as easy as you describe!
But, in various stores that do not hesitate to work with outbids, there will soon be replenishment of relatively cheap cards. 70 percent will be cheaper than in dns ^_^
The phrase: "before it was better" to the point. If we remember the games of the 90s and 2000, then everything was created + - from 0, presets, etc... Now there are ready-made engines with ready-made presets, but AAA games are trying to do creating something new, but with It employs people from all over the world. 1 person from this country made this part for the game, another from another country made another part. They do it to save... capitalism. Capitalism is something else evil. Russia is still young in capitalism, and the United States has been in it for a long time and, in my opinion, they have come to a dead end in many areas. Make money on anything and everything. Capitalism is not for people, but for the wallet. Therefore, games will be released clones of popular games, and games will be made by saving on staff by paying people around the world to make something for them. But still there are + everywhere. Today, ready-made engines are used by indie developers, as well as any presses and models (paid or free). After all, it has become easier for them, there is no need to create a new wheel
Salyarych
Salyarych wrote:
In Europe, vidyuhi have fallen sharply in price, by NG they predict a fall of 3080 to 500 euros, 550 euros for 3080 ti.
Then answer the question why they are so expensive in rubles (I don’t need, I know, the bar regular above needs an answer, he doesn’t blow it, which is wildly funny). How much is the course? 60 rubles.
There are no problems in buying at all (shopfans, pochtaglobal, etc.), we bought a lot. also intermediaries with CU through Kazakhstan and of course Ozone Global, from a trusted seller. The problem now is the customs duty, if earlier it was up to 1000 euros, then on October 1 it will be lowered. If nothing changes. The news flashed that they would still extend it. It would be nice, we are actively pulling computers from behind the hillock. There is nothing to choose from here. ALTHOUGH! Rarely flicker, for example RTX 3070 for 46 thousand with a dns guarantee, an excellent variant. In online trade 52-54 start for 3070 (dns is resting). Of course, serovozs have less, on Avito. R seven is the same. You can remember Regard.
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Salarych wrote:
but how can you trust a person you see for the first time?
People take and don't show off. Reviews give time for verification and even a guarantee, even a year. At EVGA, it is global, they are neutral towards serovars. The nearest point is Germany.
Salarych wrote:
Not everything is as simple as you describe!
We have a head on our shoulders, we think, we take, we work.
Salyarych wrote:
70 percent will be cheaper than in the dns ^_^
dns generally lost the border. More expensive than in citylink or online trade, for example. I always go through the list and compare. Often cheaper. According to RAM, I’m generally silent, they sank wildly.
Capitalism has completely destroyed the connection between real labor costs and the price of the final product. The engine is almost free, the assets are free, the Indians who can’t do anything, but almost free, why does development go up in price?) Because there are uncles sitting and spitting at the ceiling who want to receive so many millions of dollars a month. Therefore, the price of the product is set as high as possible, even if it is actually made of shit and sticks for a burger and cola. And the consumer dependent on the industry pays for the banquet.
requiemmm
It has always been interesting to me, a person talks about things that he has never seen in his life, and he himself has not created or produced anything. And what's wrong with a system where some corporation is owned by a private individual, which created a company on their talents and abilities (a company in several generations), competes with others, gives people jobs, housing, insurance, choice, and even a whole "mini state" with by its laws and regulations, and in case of miscalculations and failure, it suffers losses, up to the collapse of the company. Those. you, as a consumer, provide him with work (through demand) and finance him.
requiemmm wrote:
And the consumer dependent on the industry pays for the banquet.
So the question is, what is addiction? At what level is this dependence expressed? Why are you buying this? You support. Dependence know where and how it is treated.
And what's wrong with making money. You ask, they answer the demand. And if not, you won't see them next time. There will be nothing to produce and do, there is nothing to pay people. And even an inferior indie studio project is some kind of beginning, a lesson. you can’t even do that, you can compete with them. RU games the cat cried.
01001000 01101001
When I worked at the factory, I had 7 bosses. On one of me, 7 dudes with diametrically opposed views on what I should be doing. They argued, the work stopped. One also got drunk like a pig, right at the workplace. So I have a pretty good idea of ​​how the production of anything works on the part of people, from brooms to rockets, when managers are like everywhere else.
And the bad thing about this system is that it inflates an unsecured money supply with the help of the banking system. No one produces anything real, and there is more and more money, purely for a percentage of usurers. In the case of games, an infinite number of copies means an infinitesimal cost per copy, and games are already $70.
With addiction, everything is extremely simple, like any degenerative hobby, gaming supersedes everything else very quickly, because games are made with the goal of extracting as much time and money from the client as possible. If there is no money, the client is forced to entertain those who have it as a free clown. Classic tricks of the scam are found in almost every modern game, from loot boxes and gacha to intrusive sales, where an enthusiastic client can squander more money than several games are worth at full price. As in Fixprice, it seems like a lot of what you need and cheap, but left more at the checkout than in a normal store.
requiemmm
Here's your capitalism, this is how it looks:
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requiemmm wrote:
When I worked at the factory
And capitalism is here in what place you have at the factory. you know that it is not in the Russian Federation?
requiemmm wrote:
because games are made in order to extract as much time and money from the client as possible.
Why are you sitting here at all, playing games, giving money and again talking about what you don’t understand at all. I am asking the same question again.
requiemmm wrote:
from loot boxes and gacha to obsessive sales
Oh, what a horror! I didn't buy a single loot box. Sales, fuck it. You are very impressionable and weak. Here's who they make such jokes about:
How I pity you. You suffer so much, while being so suggestible, everyone easily manipulates you. Damn games have already tortured you. Gabe Logan Newell just ruins you at every sale.
Poor fellow... I almost cried. And he also worked at a Russian factory. It is a pity that no one told him the definition of capitalism, but the work stood. What a horror. Whether capitalism abroad works in such a way that a poor hard worker from a Russian factory gives the last to loot boxes and games. What can I say, well done, they know how to earn. And that's why the plant did not earn anything while it was working ... there is something wrong here, like.
Spoiler
01001000 01101001
You know that for me your life is valued at the level of a cockroach? I never hid it, but once a year you stably cling to me and still you won’t calm down. But you had a lot of opportunities to demonstrate that you are smarter than a cockroach, that you are capable of learning - but you are not capable and you are grinding your mandibles something else. Go already.
requiemmm
I do not know you, and in general I am writing for the first time. What happened to you? Who are you confusing me with? You have no free enterprise, no competition. What kind of capitalism are you talking about. You do not have large name companies in the global market. You are a cockroach, you only consume. Where are the computers? Where are the smartphones? Where are the games? There are no private companies and there cannot be, they are a problem for the state. They cannot allow that.
Although you know, if you're wildly stupid. Nothing to help here. There are many of you, dreamers, who have not been abroad, and never will be. Growing up on TV.
And you know, a paradoxical thing, you with your factories do not earn as much as the game industry raises. Here's a damn joke, 2022 bro, priorities and demand, when computers decide, and you can't upgrade your old and backward factory without capitalism you hate! Well things! Sailed.
Protocol10
They come out, but they come out worse and worse. Before games were ideological.
I don't see the future in today's reality. I wouldn't be surprised and even very happy if all the big publishers went out of business or were bought out by bigger fish. With their bloated staffs that are unable to squeeze worthy projects out of themselves, they are simply not needed. And even harmful. Taking the info field for yourself, preventing small developers from being promoted.
Also, not everything is good with platform holders. Sony may well not survive this generation, with so much competition from the Mikes and their dubious moves.