Let's Think (Diablo 2)
Imagine that Akara gives you the choice of one of three unidentified griffins. It is known that one of them is a perf, and the rest have random, non-perf stats. You pick one, let's say #1, without identifying it. After that, Akara (who knows where the perf is, and where the random ones are), identifies one of the remaining griffins, for example #3 - it turns out not to be a perf. Akara then asks you if you'd like to change your choice and choose Griffin #2.Question: Will your chance of getting a perf griffon increase if you accept the host's offer and change your choice?
Item stats are determined at the time of identification, no? All three can be perf. In any case, I would not even take a perf Griffon.
ArgumentPrinyal, people, ATP, you revive the forum. you're not from the administration of pg, no? ;-)
PS next topic should be called "Let's use our brains"! ;D
Sanchez Ramirez
I'm not sure about Akara, but if you sell it to you, it turns out to be a 10 fcr magic ring.
Decrease. If Akara wanted to fit a perf griffin to US, she would have given it like that, and would not have arranged a lottery. And since she knows that the No. 1 we have chosen is a perf, she starts to play up.
And in general, if it comes to that, such affairs in the Rogue Camp are in charge of the Guide.
pvpmasta, if you consider tasks as related to each other, then by changing your decision, you increase your chances from 1/3 to 2/3.
pvpmasta, indeed, a slippery wording:
After that, Akara (who knows where the perf is and where the random ones are), identifies one of the remaining griffins, identifies one of the remaining griffins, for example # 3, - it turns out not to be a perf
The part in brackets pushes conclusion that Akara purposefully identifies non-perf. The author needs to clarify this point.
pvpmasta, then what is the information in brackets for? If you're right about that, then these are two unrelated problems with odds of 1/3 and 1/2, respectively.
9 know Praviliniy OTVET !!!
Akara = Galkin!!! Toka y nee 33.3 / 66.7 ,a ne 50/50 :D
ILi kto tam ety hreny was vedet ? 9hz)
Zalachi analogue:
There are 5 balls in the basket. Three blue and two red. Chance to draw blue 3/5, red 2/5.
The person draws a random ball from the basket. Blue.
There are 4 balls left in the basket. Now the chance to draw blue red is 2/2 and 2/2.
Accordingly, the previous choice had an impact on the next one.
So if the akara has 3 shields, then the chance to pull out a perf shield will be 1/3.
The chance to pull out a bad one is 2/3.
Next, there are two options.
Let's take out perf. We hit 1/3. Akara removes one of the bad shields. The chance that Akara now has a shitshield is 1/1. Those. We are 100% in the flight if we want to exchange the shield.
If we pull out a bad shield, then again there are two options:
1) Akara removes the bad one and a perf remains. Chance to pull perf = 1/1.
2) Akara removes the good one, and then there is no point in choosing at all.
Considering the previous points, we conclude:
The chance to pull out a good shield in any case = 2/3 only in one case out of three does Akara throw him out.
PS reflections under beer :D
Torum.
Imagine that Akara gives you a choice of one of three unidentified griffins (he is shocked).