Probability theory...
You are participating in a TV game. And you are asked to choose one door out of 3. There is a car behind one of the doors, scooters behind the other two.Which door did you choose?
Let's say the first one.
And then the presenter, who knows that behind each of the doors, opens another door - at number 3. And there ... A scooter.
The host asks you: “Does your choice remain outside door number 1?†Or not?
Riddle itself: Should you change your choice in this situation? And why.
Your choice is interesting ... It is not necessary to look in response)))
Answer.
Spoiler Answer to riddle: Yes - worth it. Initially, the probability that the car is behind door number 1 is 33.3%. At the same time, the probability that the car is behind one of the other two is 66.7%. Since the presenter knows that he is behind each of the doors, he naturally opens the door in which the scooter is in order to create intrigue. It does this regardless of which door you choose. Even if you initially chose a scooter, it will not immediately open the door you have chosen, as there is a tough scenario for the TV game.
If you keep your choice, nothing really changes. The probability of 33.3% will remain. However, if you take into account that the presenter opens the scooter in a tough game scenario, then the probability that you will win the car is 66.7% when you change your choice. Probability theory ... And nothing more ...
I change my choice - I checked, indeed, if you change your choice, the chances are doubled. As it is not surprising.
PS
"The probability of any event is 50%, either it will - or it won't.))))
X_ray_83
You think with your head- Forget about the presenter ... According to the theory of probability, an improbability occurs, which gives a happy chance .. You make the choice ... Where the fuck is deceit ... For example, you decided to go to a friend's house, remember the entrance and even the floor on which he lives. But I forgot the number and location of the apartment. And here you are standing on the staircase, and in front of you there are 3 doors to choose from. What is the chance (probability) that if you ring the first door, your friend will open for you? There are 3 apartments in total, and a friend lives only behind one of them.
-DENIMUSS -
So I always think with my head)))
And the theory of probability for me is pseudoscience, since this "science" cannot prove the origin of life, even theoretical.
And here you are standing on the staircase, and in front of you there are 3 doors to choose from.
In this case, the choice is made due to the presence of many variables and it is foolish to make a choice only on the basis of one "correct decision". Got it? )))
In this case, I would call all 3 doors at once, 1 option 1 solution and in time immediately in one call)))
X_ray_83
Your logic sucks - Your answer reminds me of an old anecdote)))
They conduct a survey "What is the probability of meeting a dinosaur on the street?" The man is asked - he says - well, probably one chance in a million! A woman is asked, she answers - 50 to 50! - Why??? - Well, either I will meet, or I will not meet ...
The answer under the spoiler is fierce delirium. After opening the door with the scooter, 2 doors and 1 car remain, regardless of which door you chose and which one the presenter opened. In any case, the probability of finding the car behind any of the two remaining doors is 50%.
-DENIMUSS -
"Your logic sucks "
Everything is fine. I want a 100% result not 30 or 50%. Everything that I do I succeed because I know a lot of variables. But all this does not apply to people and health, it is not even a "lottery".
X_ray_83
We take a coin worth 10 rubles and place a bet on the eagle. we throw it three times. and still choose door # 1. (we initially do not have a question, the answer will follow after the choice is made) this riddle goes to Intuition, Luck and Determination ... an ordinary life situation. The whole problem with this riddle is that the solution, at first glance, absolutely contradicts common sense! BUT FACT when changing the choice, the probability tends to 66, (6)% .. Since the probability of choosing a car on the first attempt is one in three (or 33%), the chance of not choosing a car if the player changes his choice is also one to three (or 33%), which means that the player who used the door swap strategy has a 66% chance of winning, or two to three. Two envelopes are offered containing two amounts of money, moreover, in one of the envelopes the amount differs from the amount in the other envelope exactly twice. No actions (measuring, etc.) can be performed with envelopes. You can only open any one envelope and count the money in it, and then make a choice - take this envelope or take another envelope to get a larger amount. You want an envelope with a larger amount, isn't it))) Will you change the envelope ??? :)
-DENIMUSS -
"Intuition, Luck and Determination ... an ordinary life situation"
That is, according to your "logic", knowledge and calculation are not the main thing in life? How old are you?
"An ill-conceived life is worthless." Aristotle
"and still choose door number 1"
It seems in the movie Mission: Impossible they played it, like an intercom to the entrance to and he needed to get into it quickly, what did he do? I pressed all the buttons and someone will open the door, that's what I chose a quick logical move, or am I wrong?
"and in one of the envelopes the amount differs from the amount in the other envelope exactly twice"
The envelope can be twice the amount.
X_ray_83
Read carefully titanium)))) .. This is a figurative expression. You have a very bad perception of the world ... I see the goal, I go around the obstacle.)))) In the forest about girls with girls about the forest)) I state the facts, and you tell me Mission impossible buttons and someone will open the door Or do you live by the principle -The best way not to listen to other people's nonsense is to say your own. I pressed all the buttons and someone will open the door, that's what I chose a quick logical move, or am I wrong? What a naive logic just fucking .... The envelope can be twice the amount. You generally know how to think .. You have a clear task - What are you thinking of heresy ...
-DENIMUSS -
You originally had 3 doors. The probability of winning a car is 33%, but since 1 scooter has already been shown, the probability of winning a car has increased to 50%, since there will be either a scooter or a car outside the door.
-DENIMUSS -
In the flash series there is every kind of fuss ... all the time, they explain everything there to some kind of heh .. from the ceiling, also say that everything is logical and correct, I mean that you cited an insert from the film, where there explains the teacher.
No one knows that the presenter shows a scooter depending on the player's choice, or even if it means that the presenter, depending on some particular choice, will show that there is a scooter in one of the doors, then it is not known which choice he is oriented to the correct one or not. And if you know what I said where and once they showed me one room with a scooter, then I definitely made a mistake and change the choice, then the signal that it is necessary to change the choice is made 100%, and where this figure is taken from 66%, from the ceiling and only.
The author is a troll in general.
-DENIMUSS -
"What a naive logic simply ohrenevayu ..."
Count up, but it works here is that chyudesa!
Well, you obviously cannot think, in reality and not in pseudoscience there are many solutions, not 1 or 5, and not 100. That's what I'm trying to convey to you, but you don't understand it.
Once again, this "Theory of Probability" does not prove the origin of life, that is, it contradicts everything.
"I see the goal, I go around the obstacle.))))"
So what's wrong with that !? You need to be more cunning, and this task is not for THAT, once again you need conditions so that there would be an element of randomness for everyone, and not just for you, what is not clear !? In your example, delirium is so all too stupid for ibitsils.
Why should I believe in "this", for me it is heresy no more.
-DENIMUSS - there
are 2 doors 50% chance. You write that the person chose the door number and they show him another door in which the scooter, according to normal logic, 2 doors remain and the choice is made 50%, but according to your logic, the initial choice was the wrong one, or an unlikely win just because the scooter was shown to me, here explain this is more detailed. That is, I made a choice, they show me a scooter and it turns out my choice is wrong, what kind of nonsense are you writing. You're just a troll.
It smells like a madhouse, I understand, everyone thinks the chances are 50 to 50 - but in fact there is 66% ... 1 door = 33% chance that we have chosen correctly and, accordingly, 66% that is not correct. And passing the legacy. stage of the task, 1 obviously not correct option is removed from us and we are left with 2 doors. And taking advantage of the fact that we initially chose the option most likely wrong, the remaining option is most likely to be correct. With correspondingly the same 33 and 66% This is the paradox of the riddle, which proves both its truth and its falsity ... Following this rule, the participants of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" very often change their answer after they remove 2 of 4 They follow the logic: "Well, I was leaning towards the first one. They left the first and the second. So the first one was left because I kind of leaned towards him, and the second - because it appears to be correct." And they almost always turn out to be wrong. This paradox has been for many years (think, if everything were as simple as it seems at first glance, would they call it a paradox ??) for many, many years. The solution has been around for a long time without you. Therefore, it is not necessary to APPROVE that the decision is wrong, but you are so smart, you are sure that the answer is 50/50 ...
-DENIMUSS -
There is no paradox. This problem is sucked from the thumb. It doesn't matter how many doors there were at the beginning. When there are two doors left, the chance of winning the car is 50%. You are either a troll, or go learn the theory of probability.
And, yes, I APPROVE that the decision under the spoiler is wrong, but I am so smart, I am sure that the answer is 50/50.
Examples as such are different in terms of conditions;
The first condition, 3 doors and the leader:
- A successful choice is equal to 1 out of 3 (approximately 33%), no matter how the leader confuses us, the probability remains 33%, even if he opened one of them.
- A successful choice is also 33%, but in this condition the leader opens one door and makes it possible to repeat the choice, which means that the initial condition (1 of 3) is replaced with a new one, choice 1 of 2, which reduces the chance of success to 50%.
- Everything is the same (as in the first 2 elections), only there is no car behind the doors, in fact, initially, both with 1 out of 3, and with 1 out of 2, the probability of finding is 0%.
The second condition, one behind one of the 3 doors;
- A successful choice in such a situation is 16.5% (approximately), but provided that you can only call one door.
- A successful choice, if it is possible to call all doors, is from 50 to 100% (namely, approximately 16.5%, 33% or 49.5% (but since 100% is not divisible by 3, we can round up to 50%.)
- Successful the choice is equal to 33% or 100% (call to 1 and 3 doors at the same time) only on condition that the door will be opened for us in all apartments
. the presenter does not know what answer the player will give, but there are only 2 answers.